Recently, I’ve noticed a lot more discussion about the mobile space. That’s understandable, a lot is happening. Thanks in part to the Android platform and the iPhone, the notion of the mobile as a computing device is becoming mainstream.
Mobile devices will become a dominant computing platform; but instead of simply taking the word of market reports, or my word, I’d like to take you back in time to shed some light on the future.
Just over a few decades ago, the world’s computing was largely provided by mainframe computers - the sort that look like white goods, only they weren’t white and you needed so many that they filled a whole room. By today’s standards, there weren’t too many mainframes about, probably because they cost so much and were so big.
Technology advanced, and for a lot less, you could buy a mini computer. Mini computers were a lot like mainframes except they were a lot smaller and a lot cheaper. You could afford to put one in every department in the university, in each branch of the bank, in each regional office in the company. More mini computers than mainframes were sold and I hear the 70s was a great time to be in the minicomputer business.
Mini computers were soon followed by the introduction of the personal computer, by companies like Apple and IBM. Being so small and so cheap, every household could afford one, and companies could afford to put one on the desk of every employee. Personal computers were everywhere, and all this cheap computing power meant mini computers were less important. Consequently, fewer and fewer mini computers were sold (until finally, none were sold.)
PCs are great, but you can’t take them with you. You can’t take them to your lecture, or away from the office to work at home. Maybe it’s for these reasons that notebooks outsell desktop PCs.
In many ways mobile devices address the shortcomings of notebooks. Mobile devices fit in your pocket and are always on. You don’t need to carry your laptop everywhere to reach the web and email. Moreover, they make it more convenient to contact other people - there’s a phone built in!
Mobile devices are smaller and cheaper than notebooks. Just like notebooks influenced PCs (they outsell PCs) and PCs influenced mini computers (mini computers are dead) mobile devices will have an appreciable impact on notebooks and PCs in the years ahead.
Maybe that’s why I’m not surprised by the forecast that the size and growth of the smartphone market will exceed the notebook market for the next five years.
